Probability Simulations and Flight MH370

March 28th, 2014
in history

by Salil Mehta, Statistical Ideas

Probability simulations help show distributions for both parametric and non-parametric analysis. We will show this below, starting with multi-dimensional random walk. Then we will apply this technique and integrate Bayesian likelihood analysis, connected to a spherical map.

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February 2014 Pending Home Sales Data Again Bad

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The pending home sales index for February 2014 was released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) today, and our analysis suggests that March 2014 existing home sales again may not be good.

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Third Estimate 4Q2013 GDP Revised to 2.6%

March 27th, 2014
in aa syndication, gdp

Written by Doug Short and

The third estimate of fourth quarter 2013 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now a positive 2.6%.

  • The market expected GDP at +2.2% to 3.0% (consensus 2.7%).
  • This data point was 3.2% in the advance GDP estimate, and 2.4% in the second estimate.

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Case-Shiller Home Prices January 2014: Taking a Breather

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The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) for January 2014 (released today) declined again slightly but showed the 20th consecutive monthly year-over-year gain in housing prices since the end of the housing stimulus in 2010.

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Durable Goods Mixed in February 2014

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The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved in February. Our analysis says the opposite. There is no argument, however, that if one excludes aircraft - this is not a good report.

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