Three Black Swans

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“The world in which we live has an increasing number of feedback loops, causing events to be the cause of more events (say, people buy a book because other people bought it), thus generating snowballs and arbitrary and unpredictable planet-wide winner-take-all effects.”– Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan

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GDP Growth Seems to be Normalizing

July 28th, 2017
in consumer metrics institute, gdp

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute

July 28, 2017 - BEA Estimates 2nd Quarter 2017 GDP Growth At 2.56%:

In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +2.56% annual rate, up +1.14% from a downward revised first quarter.

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Economic Models vs ‘Techno-Optimism’: Predicting Medium-Term Total Factor Productivity Rates in the US

July 23rd, 2017
in macroeconomics

-- this post authored by Nicholas Crafts and Terence Mills, Voxeu.org

Estimates of trend total factor productivity growth in the US have been significantly reduced, contributing to fears that the slowdown is permanent. This column provides an historical perspective on the relationship between estimated trends in total factor productivity growth and subsequent outcomes. It argues that In the past, trend growth estimates have not been a good guide for future medium-term outcomes, and ‘techno-optimists’ should not be put off by time-series econometrics.

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Why Economists Fail to Make ‘Rational’ Judgments and Why You Should Too

July 22nd, 2017
in history, macroeconomics

by Philip Pilkington

Recently Cameron Murray directed me to an interesting paper entitled Do Economists Recognize an Opportunity Cost When They See One? A Dismal Performance from the Dismal Science. The paper surveyed a whole bunch of professional economists to see if they could answer a basic question on the microeconomic theory of the ‘opportunity cost’.

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Trade War Games

July 20th, 2017
in history, trade data, macroeconomics

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“We’re already in a trade war with China. The problem is we’ve not been fighting back.”– Peter Navarro

“The battle for Helm’s Deep is over. The battle for Middle Earth is about to begin.”– Gandalf the White

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