Why Ukraine Is Not Quite as Dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis, But - -

April 26th, 2014
in history, governments - other

Written by , Morss Global Finance

  • All the ingredients are in place for a major conflagration: two world powers pitted against one another with no apparent face-saving exit for either. It won’t happen. But….
  • Putin will send troops into Ukraine to “safeguard” Russian-speaking citizens.
  • Even if Putin is somehow satisfied, his actions might have launched a civil war in Ukraine.
  • Even if Ukraine gets beyond Putin and civil war dangers, the IMF agreement will cause hardship and again threaten political stability.

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Ignorance In Measuring Employment Slack

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Recently Fed Chair Janet Yellen and a study at the Federal Reserve of Atlanta have put a focus on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) participation rate as a good measure of employment slack. Slack means that there are more people willing and capable of filling a job than there are jobs for them to fill. 

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Watch the Indices! Derivatives and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis

April 25th, 2014
in aa syndication, eurozone and euro

by Anne-Laure Delatte, Julien Fouquau and Richard Portes, Voxeu.org

In retrospect, it is striking that the sovereign bond spreads of peripheral Eurozone countries surged while the economic conditions were gradually deteriorating. This column provides a new explanation for this phenomenon. It suggests that the markets in credit default swap indices have exacerbated shocks to economic fundamentals. The same change in fundamentals had a higher impact on the spread during the crisis period than it had previously.

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Durable Goods Strong in March 2014, Above Consensus

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The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved in March. Our analysis agrees. Even though aircraft was the strongest component, this report was generally strong across all sectors.

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Understanding "Austrian" Economics

April 24th, 2014
in aa syndication, governments - other

by Henry Hazlitt, Mises.org

[This article originally appeared in the Freeman, February 1981.]

"Austrian" economics owes its name to the historical fact that it was founded and first elaborated by three Austrians: Carl Menger (1840–1921), Friedrich von Wieser (1851–1926), and Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk (1851-1914). The latter two built on Menger, though Bohm-Bawerk, in particular, made important additional contributions.

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