May 2014 Economic Forecast: Slight Economic Improvement

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Our May 2014 Economic Forecast continues to show a growing economy – and for the first time in several months the forecast rate of growth improved marginally. All portions of the economy outside our economic model are showing expansion.  Our modeled Main Street economy has strengthened, perhaps helped by getting the the bad winter weather data behind us.

Still, the consumer portion of the economy is lagging the growth of the business sector.

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April 2014 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Falls Slightly

April 29th, 2014
in aa syndication, consumer sentiment

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The April 2014 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell after last month's improvement. The market expected this index to come in at 80.8 to 87.8 (consensus 83.0) versus the 82.3 reported.

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Case-Shiller Home Prices February 2014: Prices Continue to Grow at a Slower Rate

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The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) for February 2014 (released today) rate of growth declined again slightly but showed the 21st consecutive monthly year-over-year gain in housing prices since the end of the housing stimulus in 2010.

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The Cost of Code Red

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

– Ludwig von Mises

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March 2014 Pending Home Sales Improves But Still Not Good

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The National Association of Realtors (NAR) pending home sales index for March 2014 shows a sizeable improvement over last month.  Unfortunately, the headlines don't mention that pending home sales index level is down from a year ago, and our analysis suggests that April 2014 existing home sales again may not be good.

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