Low Inflation Deflator and Inventory Increases Boost GDP

November 29th, 2017
in consumer metrics institute, gdp

Second Estimate 3Q 2017 GDP

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.30% annual rate, up +0.32% from the previous estimate and up +0.24% from the prior quarter.


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The Bonfire Burns On

November 28th, 2017
in macroeconomics

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“Life invests itself with inevitable conditions, which the unwise seek to dodge, which one and another brags that he does not know, that they do not touch him; but the brag is on his lips, the conditions are in his soul. If he escapes them in one part they attack him in another more vital part. If he has escaped them in form and in the appearance, it is because he has resisted his life and fled from himself, and the retribution is so much death.”– Ralph Waldo Emerson, “Compensation”

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Interest Rates and ‘Reserve Constraints’: Why Endogenous Money Works Without Central Bank Intervention

November 25th, 2017
in macroeconomics

by Philip Pilkington

Article of the Week from Fixing the Economists

Endogenous money advocates often think that a central bank is required in order to offset increases in government borrowing. The story goes: the central bank targets the overnight interest rate by buying up government securities; if the government issues more debt in the form of securities to increase spending the central bank will soak this debt up to maintain the target interest rate. Thus government spending cannot cause higher interest rates. Rather the interest rate is set by the central bank.

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Bonfire of the Absurdities

November 21st, 2017
in macroeconomics

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.”
– Ecclesiastes 1:2, King James Version (attributed to King Solomon in his old age)

This week’s article takes a look at the growing number of ridiculous, inane, and otherwise nonsensical absurdities that fill the daily economic headlines. I have gone from the occasional smile to scratching my head now and then to “WTF” moments several times a week.

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Mortgage Default During the Great Recession Came from Real Estate Investors, Not Subprime Credit Holders

November 19th, 2017
in aa syndication

from Voxeu.org

-- this post authored by Stefania Albanesi, Giacomo De Giorgi and Jaromir Nosal

The Global Crisis narrative has suggested that an expansion of subprime credit was the reason for rising mortgage defaults, leading to the large-scale recession in 2007-09. Taking a closer look at the characteristics of subprime credit holders over the period, this column argues that the growth in mortgage defaults did not occur predominantly amongst subprime credit holders. Instead, it was real estate investors that played a critical role in the rise in mortgage debt, specifically among the middle and the top of the credit score distribution.

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