Rising Job Tenure and Its Tradeoffs

June 15th, 2017
in employment

by Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist

Given the tumultuous changes in the US economy in recent years, I would have guessed that average "job tenure"--that is, the average time that someone with a job has held that job--was declining. My guess would have been wrong. Henry R. Hyatt and James R. Spletzer present the evidence that job tenure has been mostly on the increase since about 2000 in "Shifting Job Tenure Distribution" (U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, May 2016, CES 16-12R).

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Can You Afford to Reach 100?

June 12th, 2017
in demographics, macroeconomics

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“I often joke that 100 years from now I hope people are saying, ‘Dang, she looks good for her age!’”– Dolly Parton

“Just because you live 20 years or 100 years doesn’t make it less meaningful. They’re both short amounts of time. So all we can do is just live in that time, whatever time we’re given.”– Ansel Elgort

“If I had more time, I would have written a shorter letter.”– Blaise Pascal, 1657 (and a few score other later attributions)

 

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The Yield Curve and Recessions: Against U.S. - Centricism

June 10th, 2017
in history, macroeconomics

by Philip Pilkington

Article of the Week from Fixing the Economists

One of the nicest stylised facts in applied economics is that if the Fed inverts the yield curve it will cause a recession. Inverting the yield curve basically means that the Fed hikes the short-term interest rate goes higher than the long-term interest rate. In theory this should lead to long-term lending drying up, investment falling significantly (usually in housing and inventories) and, ultimately, a recession.

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Money and Banking, Part 18 (B): Overview of the Financial System: A World of Promises

by Eric Tymoigne

Due to the size of this post, it has been split into 2. You can find part A here.

Click for larger image of U.S. Treasury note.

5.dollar.treasury.certificate

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Thoughts from the Frontline: The Great Reset, Part Two

June 4th, 2017
in history, macroeconomics

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“Premature optimization is the root of all evil…”
– Donald Knuth, from his 1974 Turing Award lecture

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