Import and Export Price Deflation Continued in December 2014. What Is Next?

January 14th, 2015
in aa syndication

Written by

Having lived my life in the world of inflation, and seeing the dramatic fall of the export and import price indices - just leaves me speechless. I am not a fan of disruption or rapid change as it leads to bad things in the short term. Literally everything deflated this month.


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Retail Sales Slumped In December 2014 - Food and Drinking Did OK.

January 14th, 2015
in aa syndication, retail and business sales

Written by

Retail sales slumped according to US Census and well under expectations. Our analysis again slightly disagrees - but the unadjusted data in this series declined marginally (driven to a large part by backward revision). Overall the rolling averages are yielding a rather flat growth line showing there is too much noise in the monthly figures.

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Patience is a Virtue

Age of Wisdom, Age of Foolishness (59)

Written by ,

A mixture of cognitive dissonance and wishful thinking, with a little help from global policy makers, rattled the markets pre-FOMC announcement last week. Post-FOMC the panic stopped, just as it should have been increasing.

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November 2014 JOLTS Again Continues to Predict Elevated Jobs Growth

January 13th, 2015
in aa syndication, employment

Written by

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) can be used as a predictor of future jobs growth, and the predictive elements show that the year-over-year private non-farm job opening growth rate again improved slightly. The current rate is quite high - so it follows that the high employment growth rate should continue.

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Stratfor: A War Between Two Worlds

January 13th, 2015
in stratfor

by George Friedman

The murders of cartoonists who made fun of Islam and of Jews shopping for their Sabbath meals by Islamists in Paris last week have galvanized the world. A galvanized world is always dangerous. Galvanized people can do careless things. It is in the extreme and emotion-laden moments that distance and coolness are most required. I am tempted to howl in rage. It is not my place to do so. My job is to try to dissect the event, place it in context and try to understand what has happened and why. From that, after the rage cools, plans for action can be made. Rage has its place, but actions must be taken with discipline and thought.

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