BLS Jobs Situation Was Again Strong in December 2014 for the Establishment Portion But the Household Portion Again Is Very Different

January 9th, 2015
in aa syndication, employment

Written by

The BLS jobs report headlines from the establishment survey were strong and above expectations. The unadjusted data shows very strong jobs growth. Year-over-year growth rates are improving. The household survey again says something different.

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January 9th, 2015
in aa syndication

Age of Wisdom, Age of Foolishness (58)

Written by ,

The debate between the Northern and Southern Europeans, over the direction of fiscal policy in the Eurozone, is beginning to follow default national stereotypical behaviour. The Northern Europeans are rational and the Southern Europeans are emotional. The Northern Europeans intend to exploit the emotions of their Southern neighbours, in order to provoke the kind of irrational behavior which leads to mistakes. 

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November 2014 Consumer Credit Growth Rises. Current Increase in Rate of Growth is Not Sustainable.

January 8th, 2015
in aa syndication, consumer credit

Written by

Consumer credit growth has been trending down since July - but grew this month. It is interesting that student loan growth has not been distorting one's view of the consumer credit growth as the rate of growth is now slightly decelerating. Overall, consumer credit is growing at roughly double GDP growth and repayment of consumer debt is taking a larger share of disposable income. The current trends are not sustainable unless there is a similar increase of growth in disposable income.

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Stratfor: Paris Attack Underscores a Deeper Malaise

January 8th, 2015
in stratfor


Wednesday's deadly attack against a French satirical publication has the potential to upset relations between European states and their Muslim citizenries. The strategic intent behind such attacks is precisely to sow this kind of crisis, as well as to influence French policy and recruit more jihadists. Even though Islamist extremism is, at its core, an intra-Muslim conflict, such incidents will draw in non-Muslims, exacerbating matters.

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Reflections on the New 'Secular Stagnation Hypothesis'

January 7th, 2015
in macroeconomics

by Lawrence H. Summers

Originally published at 20 October 2014.

The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in the Vox eBookSecular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures – explains the idea. It argues that a decline in the full-employment real interest rate coupled with low inflation could indefinitely prevent the attainment of full employment.

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