Taper Tantrum Redux

Age of Wisdom, Age of Foolishness (54)

Written by , KeySignals.com

“No More Tantrums.”
“They’re creepy and they’re cookey.
The Statements are quite spooky.
Their policy is flukey.
Yel – lens F-O-M-C.”
(Age of Wisdom, Age of Foolishness (52) “Deathly Hallows”)

Following on, from the October FOMC meeting, the Fed smoothly eased into tightening mode. Janet Yellen formally confirmed that tightening mode has been entered, at the Bank of France conference in Paris a few weeks later; and also warned that this period would involve considerable volatility.

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November 2014 Sea Container Counts Continue to Show Rapid Contraction of Exports

December 17th, 2014
in aa syndication, trade data, transport

Written by

Export container counts continue to weaken, which is a warning that the global economy is slowing. Export three month rolling averages continue to decelerate - being in negative territory year-over-year. This is a headwind for 4Q2014 GDP. Container counts are a good metric to gauge the economy.

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November 2014 CPI Annual Inflation Rate Falls 0.4% to 1.3%

December 17th, 2014
in aa syndication, prices - ppi, cpi, etc

by Doug Short and

The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate which remained constant at 1.7% for the previous 3 months dropped to 1.3%. Energy prices decreased whilst food increased partially countering energy's decline. The year-over-year core inflation rate declined 0.1% to 1.7%, and remains under the targets set by the Federal Reserve.

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Always Remember: Balance of Payments Must Balance

December 16th, 2014
in macroeconomics, currency / money

My Reading of the FT on China’s “Turning Away from the Dollar”

by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets

The Financial Times ran a very interesting article last week called “China: Turning away from the dollar”. It got a lot of attention, at least among China analysts, and I was asked several times by friends and clients for my response.

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Residential Building Sector Not Good in November 2014, Obvious Deceleration in the Averages.

December 16th, 2014
in aa syndication, construction spending

Written by

Residential building permits were not good. Even construction completions outnumbered permits (showing that the future is darkening as there will be less homes to build). All data is decelerating.

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