Here’s Why Initial Claims May Really Show “Houston We Have A Problem”

January 18th, 2015
in employment

by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted finagled for initial unemployment claims came in at 316,000, which was significantly more than the Wall Street conomist crowd consensus guess of 290,000. Media pundits immediately blamed the miss on a bad seasonal adjustment factor. Apparently they heard my barrage of complaints yesterday about how they mishandled the retail sales number. The problem is that the actual, unmanipulated data really does hint at possible trouble in the employment trend.

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Government Workers at Multiyear Lows?? Really?

January 17th, 2015
in aa syndication, weekly economic summary

Written by

Have you seen the label "Made in USA"? Supposedly this means the product is "all or virtually all" made in the United States. I have little faith in labels such as this - the USA supply chain has gone from vertical (where one company literally made every piece of the final product) to almost horizontal (where the manufacturer is an assembler of outsourced components). 

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December 2014 CPI Annual Inflation Rate Falls from 1.3% to 0.8%. Wow!

January 16th, 2015
in aa syndication, prices - ppi, cpi, etc

by Doug Short and

The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate dropped to 0.8%. Of course energy prices decreased, while food and several other goods increased partially countering energy's decline. The year-over-year core inflation rate again declined 0.1% to 1.6%, and continues well under the targets set by the Federal Reserve.

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Preliminary January 2015 Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Eleven Year High

January 16th, 2015
in aa syndication, consumer sentiment

by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/

The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 98.1, a strong surge from last month's final reading of 93.6. This is the highest level of sentiment in eleven years. Today's sentiment level came in substantially above the forecast of 94.1.

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December 2014 Industrial Production Weakens but Pretty Much at Expectations

Written by

The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) declined. Econintersect‘s analysis agrees  - BUT consider that the unadjusted rolling averages are accelerating. 

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