Misunderstanding 'Liquidity Trap'

December 14th, 2014
in aa syndication

Fixing the Economists Article of the Week

by Philip Pilkington

I have long complained that the likes of Paul Krugman have grossly misinterpreted the meaning of the term ‘liquidity trap’. These economists seem to think that we are currently in a liquidity trap despite the fact that yields on bonds are extremely low across the board.

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The Imprecision of Volatility Indexes

December 14th, 2014
in uncategorized

by Rohini Grover and Ajay Shah, ajay shah blog

A remarkable feature of options trading is that it reveals a forward-looking measure of the market's view of future volatility. This was first done by CBOE in 1993 with the S&P 500 index options, with an information product named `VIX' which reveals the market's view of future volatility of the US stock market index.

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Macroeconomics Finally Gets Interesting

December 13th, 2014
in aa syndication

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“The future is already here – it's just not very evenly distributed.” – William Gibson, Hall of Fame science fiction writer

Since I began writing this letter some 15 years ago, I’ve always done an annual forecast letter, generally in the first week of January. That letter is typically the most-read issue of the year, and I spend more time thinking about it than any other letter. I typically take the last week of the year off from writing just to concentrate on my research, and I often begin to compile my reading material the first week in December, which the calendar tells us is now. Helping me this year will be my associate Worth Wray and a few members of the Mauldin Economics team, and of course my many friends and readers.

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Is the November Headline Employment Gains Too Good to be True?

Written by

Last week I penned that the BLS Jobs Situation Was Strong in November 2014 for the Establishment Portion But the Household Portion Shows Almost No Jobs Growth. The establishment portion showed job gains of 321,000 whilst the household portion showed job gains of 4,000. One question is whether this real discrepancy throws some cold water on the general belief that jobs growth is becoming fairly strong in the USA. Some think any government release is manipulated.

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Preliminary December 2014 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surges

December 12th, 2014
in aa syndication, consumer sentiment

by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com

The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 93.8, a strong surge from last month. Today reading is a is a post-recession high and the highest level since January 2007, almost eight years ago. Today's sentiment level came in substantially above the Investing.com forecast of 89.7.

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