Riddle Me This: Why Has Employment Gained and Sales Declined?

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Using technical jargon, the employment numbers and business sales are seriously out of whack. Sales are in contraction and employment is in expansion - an event usually associated with recessions.

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Shadow-boxing with DSGE Models

November 4th, 2016
in macroeconomics

by Philip Pilkington

Fixing the Economists Article of the Week

Lars Syll has recently linked to a post by Noah Smith criticising DSGE models. Criticising DSGE models is the latest fad in mainstream macroeconomics — hey, it’s easy to use the model that was in fashion just before the crisis as a scapegoat to distract the profession from the fact that they still have no idea how to begin to explain the crisis or its aftermath.

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Debt Derangement Syndrome: Saving Our Grandkids from Wall Street

by William K. Black, New Economic Perspectives

Pete Peterson is back, and his message and rhetoric are always the same. The federal budget deficit is a disaster and – any day now – will produce massive inflation. Peterson has written his 20,000th version of this fantasy in the NYT with Paul Volcker.

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China's Insanely Leveraged Housing Market Will Enter Its Secular Bear Market In 2017

October 30th, 2016
in china

by Dee Woo

Summary

  • What's behind the property fever in China?
  • The financial truth of the destocking of China's property market.
  • We use quantitative analysis to predict when the bubbles of China's housing market will burst.
china.development.model

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Inventories, Exports and Government Spending Boost GDP

October 29th, 2016
in gdp

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute

October 28, 2016 - BEA Estimates 3rd Quarter 2016 GDP Growth to be 2.91% 

In their first ("preliminary") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +2.91%, up +1.49% from the prior quarter.   Most of the reported improvement in the headline number came from a +1.77% quarter-to-quarter gain in inventories, a +0.96% rise in exports, and a +0.39% uptick in governmental spending.

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