Forget the Sept. '15 Fed Tightening - There Has Been a Stealth Tightening Since Sept. '14

September 2nd, 2015
in aa syndication

by Paul Kasriel, The Econtrarian

The late, great Milton Friedman used to preach that you don’t assess the degree of monetary policy restriction or accommodation by the level and movement of interest rates but rather by the behavior of monetary quantities.

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Liquidity is the Visible Hand

Fed Minutes Are Minutia Except For One Critically Important, Widely Ignored Detail

by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner

The FOMC meeting minutes are a key instrument of official Fed propaganda. They show how the Fed wants you to view policy. There’s some useful information there, but it’s not what the Fed says it thinks about the economy. I won’t waste your time with what the July meeting minutes reported that the Fed staff and FOMC members said about the economy and markets. Events have a way of superseding whatever they wanted you to think 6 weeks before the release.

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Weapons of Economic Misdirection

September 1st, 2015
in macroeconomics

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“Measurement theory shows that strong assumptions are required for certain statistics to provide meaningful information about reality. Measurement theory encourages people to think about the meaning of their data. It encourages critical assessment of the assumptions behind the analysis.

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Greek Debt Sustainability: The Devil is in the Tails

August 31st, 2015
in aa syndication

by Andrea Consiglio and Stavros A. Zenios

Appeared originally at Voxeu.org 12 August 2015

Some experts view Greek debt as sustainable, while others claim it is not sustainable. This column argues that the distinction between tactical and strategic debt sustainability can explain this difference of opinions.

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Can We Believe the "Wonderful" GDP News?

August 29th, 2015
in gdp

2Q 2015 GDP "Bounces" Up to 3.7% Growth

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a 3.70% annualized rate, up +1.38% from their previous estimate and up +3.06% from the first quarter.

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