When do We Decide that Europe Must Restructure Much of Its Debt?

by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets

It is hard to watch the Greek drama unfold without a sense of foreboding. If it is possible for the Greek economy partially to revive in spite of its tremendous debt burden, with a lot of hard work and even more good luck we can posit scenarios that don’t involve a painful social and political breakdown, but I am pretty convinced that the Greek balance sheet itself makes growth all but impossible for many more years.

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The Efficient Markets Hypothesis Has Been Proved Wrong But Economists Do Not Want to Listen

Fixing the Economists Article of the Week

by Philip Pilkington

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is wrong. It has been proved wrong. Do you think you’ve heard this before? You likely have, but the proof that you’ve heard that the EMH is wrong probably has not done the damage that you thought it had.

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Personal Income Limiting GDP Growth

March 1st, 2015
in gdp

Revised 4Q 2014 GDP Growth Estimate Marked Down to 2.18%

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.18% annualized rate, down roughly a half percent (-0.46%) from the +2.64% previously reported and down -2.78% from the growth rate reported for the prior quarter.

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Employment Is Hot. When Will the Fed Abandon Its Zero Bound Interest Rate Policy?

February 28th, 2015
in aa syndication, weekly economic summary

Written by

Much of what I write about is food for thought. I take opposing positions on subjects when  I agree generally on what was said - as want readers to understand there are exceptions or buts or legitimate concerns of those who have different views. Very few things are black or white.

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Can Demography Explain Secular Stagnation?

February 27th, 2015
in demographics, macroeconomics

by Axel Gottfries and Coen Teulings , voxeu.org

 This article is a lead commentary in the VoxEU Debate "Secular Stagnation"

The secular stagnation hypothesis has gained traction in the aftermath of the Global Crisis. This column argues that demography has played an important role in reducing the interest rates. The increase in life expectancy, which has not been offset by an increase in the retirement age, has led to an increase in the stocks of savings. The latter will go into price increases for assets in fixed supply – such as housing – rather than in adding new capital. Potential remedies for absorbing the extra savings are increasing the retirement age and an extension of the pay-as-you-go benefit systems.

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