Searching For Economic Direction

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Earlier this week I analyzed sea container counts at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and wrote:

The rolling averages are now decelerating for exports but accelerating for imports. Under normal situations, this is signalling an improving USA economy with a slowing global economy.

Logic dictates that the current economic data is being compared to very soft data one year ago, and I am expecting (even betting on) improving trend lines.

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The CAPM and the Non-Ergodic Axiom

by Philip Pilkington

Article of the Week from Fixing the Economists

While doing my dissertation on constructing a new theory of asset-pricing I became exposed to some contemporary theories. To be frank, I didn’t really know how to integrate them because they seemed to be ether (a) intuitively incorrect or (b) useless for what I consider to be the real underlying dynamics of asset-pricing, or (c) some combination of (a) and (b).  The CAPM was a combination of both.

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When the Future Becomes Today

July 17th, 2016
in aa syndication

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.”– Vladimir Lenin

“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”– Winston Churchill

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Running On Empty - Baseless Economic Optimism

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According to participants in the Chicago Fed's annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation's economic growth is forecasted to be near its long-term average this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2017.

Source: Chicago Fed Letter

The Fed should visit kindergarten classes to survey the pupils to get their economic opinions also.

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The Economics of Counterfeit Money

July 15th, 2016
in currency / money

by Philip Pilkington

Endogenous money theory, which is usually associated with the Post-Keynesian school of economics, has long told us that central banks do not control the supply of money in the economy. Instead the amount of money is determined by the demand for money which, in turn, is determined by the demand for credit. This idea, however, leaves out what is actually a rather important component: counterfeiting.

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