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December 2014 Economic Forecast: Modestly Better Rate of Growth

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Our December 2014 Economic Forecast continues to show a stable and growing economy – with a modestly better growth than last month. All portions of the economy outside our economic model - except housing - are showing expansion. There are few warning signs the economy is faltering, and few indications the economy is about to improve its rate of growth. We are truly muddling along.

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GDP Estimate Improves 3Q 2014 Despite Weaker Consumer

November 27th, 2014
in aa syndication, consumer metrics institute, gdp

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +3.89% annualized rate, up +0.35% from their first estimate for the 3rd quarter but still down some -0.70% from the 4.59% annualized growth rate registered during the second quarter.

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Stratfor: Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas

November 27th, 2014
in stratfor

by STRATFOR

The first winter took many of the English at Plymouth. By fall 1621, only 53 remained of the 132 who had arrived on the Mayflower. But those who had survived brought in a harvest. And so, in keeping with tradition, the governor called the living 53 together for a three-day harvest feast, joined by more than 90 locals from the Wampanoag tribe. The meal was a moment to recognize the English plantation's small step toward stability and, hopefully, profit. This was no small thing. A first, deadly year was common. Getting through it was an accomplishment. England's successful colony of Virginia had had a massive death toll — of the 8,000 arrivals between 1607 and 1625, only 15 percent lived.

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October 2014 Pending Home Sales Index Declines But Continues to Show Improving Home Sales

November 27th, 2014
in aa syndication, home sales and home prices

Written by

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) seasonally adjusted pending home sales index declined marginally - but remains in expansion for the second month after a year in contraction. Our analysis of pending home sales however suggests that November 2014 existing home sales will be better than October's.

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Stratfor: Iran Prepares for a Leadership Transition

November 27th, 2014
in stratfor, middle east

by STRATFOR

Though Iran has been broadcasting pictures and videos of top state officials and noted foreign dignitaries visiting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the hospital, the health of the man who has held the most powerful post in the Islamic Republic remains unclear. The unusual public relations management of what has been described as a prostate surgery suggests Tehran may be preparing the nation and the world for a transition to a third supreme leader. Iranian efforts to project an atmosphere of normalcy conceal concerns among players in the Iranian political system that a power vacuum will emerge just as the Islamic republic has reached a geopolitical crossroads.

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