The 17 September 2015 meeting statement presented the actions taken. This post covers the economic discussion during this FOMC meeting between the members (minutes were released today). There was a significant amount of discussion when to raise the federal funds rate: The quote of these minutes was:
... most participants continued to anticipate that, based on their assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, the conditions for policy firming had been met or would likely be met by the end of the year. However, some participants judged that the downside risks to the outlook for economic growth and inflation had increased .....
The last few paragraphs below discuss in detail the "deer in the headlights" situation of when to begin to raise the federal funds rate.
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08Oct2015 Market Update: FOMC 2 PM Minutes Release Expected To See Some Fireworks And Heavy Volatility In The Already Fragile Markets
by Michael Burda , voxeu.org
Appeared originally at Voxeu.org 23 September 2015
Many analysts believe that German economists hold a very different view of macroeconomics. This column presents a personal view why this belief is wrong. The fact that Europe still consists of sovereign nations and that most Europeans still want to keep it that way informs much of what happens inside German economists' heads.
Written by Gary
US large caps were climbing nicely into the green from the morning opening doldrums until 12:30 when the markets as a whole starting sea-sawing in a flurry of serious volatility. WTI oil climbed back up to yesterday's highs/resistance and backed off as investors await the U.S. Fed Releasing Minutes from Sept. 16-17 FOMC Meeting.
Expect heavy volatility and wide swings when the minutes are released at 2 pm. I expect the averages will fall off as the bulls regroup for an attack of today's highs tomorrow - maybe!
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 260 K to 275 K (consensus 272,000) vs the 263,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 270,500 (reported last week as 270,750) to 267,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.