Of the five Federal Reserve districts which have released their August manufacturing surveys - one forecasts weak growth and four are in marginal contraction. A complete summary follows.
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from the Liberty Street Economics
-- this post authored by Tobias Adrian, Richard Crump, Peter Diamond, and Rui Yu
Expectations about the path of interest rates matter for many economic decisions. Three sources for obtaining information about such expectations are available. The first is extrapolation from historical data. The second consists of surveys of expectations. The third are expectations drawn from financial market prices, often referred to as market expectations. The last are usually considered to be model-based expectations, because, generally, a model is needed to reliably extract expectations from current prices. In this post, we explain the need for and usage of term structure models for extracting far in the future interest rate expectations from market rates, which can be used to discount the long run. We will illustrate our arguments by discussing the measurement of long-run discount rates for Social Security.
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31Aug2015 Pre-Market Commentary: U.S. Futures Down Sharply, Oil Up But Trending Down, September Rate Increase Once Again A Possibility
China's Stock Market Tumble and the Outlook for the Global Economy
by L. Randall Wray, New Economic Perspectives
Interview of L. Randall Wray by Dasha Chernyshova, Moscow reporter for the Sputnik News Agency
Written by Gary
U.S. stock futures indexes are down sharply following Global stocks that are mostly in the red. Europe is little-changed, but Shanghai lost 0.8% over night and the Nikkei is down 1.3%. The possibility of a September interest rate increase has once again put investors on alert.
28Aug2015 Market Close: Small Caps Close Up Nicely, Large Caps Close Down Or Near The Unchanged Line
28Aug2015 Market Update: Markets Looking Weak Going Into The Afternoon Session As Oil Appears To Hav
The Chicago Business Barometer insignificantly declined but remains in expansion.