April 2015 Economic Forecast: Economic Growth Decline Now Evident


Written by Steven Hansen

Econintersect"s Economic Index now is indicating growth will be sluggish in April. Most tracked sectors of the economy are expanding - but now there is contraction in some data sets. The negative effects of the recently solved West Coast Port slowdown (a labor dispute which had been going on for months) and bad weather continues to be seen in much of the raw data - and it will be an economic drag on 1Q2015 GDP and into 2Q2015. It is difficult to differentiate these transient issues (weather and labor) from cyclic economic conditions - but one could argue that transient issues are the cause of economic cycles.

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What We Read Today 28 March 2015

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).


Every day most of this column ("What We Read Today") is available only to GEI members.

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 more features, analysis, studies, and news published in the last week

Labor Market Improves While Inflation Slumps

from the Dallas Fed

Economic indicators released since late January suggest that the U.S. will sustain trend growth in the medium term. Upside risks include low oil prices, a tightening job market, rising house prices, rising stock prices and low interest rates. Downside risks include the rising value of the dollar, weak global demand owing to Asia, and geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. On balance, the U.S. growth path remains steady.


Infographic Of The Day: What It Would Be Like Living On The Moon

Life on the moon would be very different for explorers than life on Earth.

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Video of the Day:

Millions of people across the UK and northern Europe have been witnessing a solar eclipse.The last time it happened was in 1999, but at that time a total eclipse of the sun was not visible anywhere in the UK. The proportion of the sun covered by the moon was 97% in the far north of Scotland - and 84% in London.

video of day picture

FOREX NEWS by DailyForex

Asian Stocks Mixed on Middle East Fears

Asian stocks were mixed on Friday as rising tensions in the Middle East obscured the investment outlook, while the dollar rebounded.

Japanese Inflation Stutters

It may be counter-intuitive to consumers, but economists and central bankers believe that a little inflation in an economy is a good thing.

Eurozone Business Output Improves

The latest Markit composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Eurozone suggests that business output in the 19 member bloc is growing at its fastest rate for almost four years.

Safe Haven Appeal Grows on Yemen Tension

A growing crisis in Yemen has fueled concerns that the Middle East is on the verge of becoming a powder keg for geopolitical tensions which has sent investors rushing to safe haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

Air Strikes in Yemen Lift Oil Prices

Brent crude oil price surged $3 in Asian trading on Thursday after Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies began a military operation in Yemen. Asian importers, however, said they were not immediately worried about supply disruptions.
 more investing, markets, precious metals & forex

The Week Ahead: Waiting for the Spring Thaw

 more opinion

How FCIC Spurned Its One Chance at Greatness

by William K. Black, New Economic Perspectives

This is the third column in what I intended to be my three-part series (see end of this article) about Citi"s most famous whistleblower, Richard M. Bowen, III. In this column I discuss Bowen and Citi"s senior (but not controlling) officers" presentations before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC).


 USA economy at a glance (boxed items are updates in last 7 days)

February 2015: Consumers Report a Higher Likelihood of Applying for Credit

from the New York Fed

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its February 2015 SCE Credit Access Survey, which provides information on consumers" experiences and expectations regarding credit demand and credit access. The release shows little change in application rates for credit over the last twelve months, but a decline in rejection rates, particularly for credit card limit increases. The expectations component of the survey shows an increase in the average likelihood of applying for credit over the next 12 months for all five credit products; the increase is most pronounced for mortgage refinance requests.

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