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Econintersect Analysis:

Deathly Hallows

Age of Wisdom, Age of Foolishness (52)

Written by , KeySignals.com

“Thomas the Growth Engine is Running Out of Steam.”

Age of Wisdom, Age of Foolishness (51) “Culture Shocks” observed George Osborne’s strategy to create “Blue Labour”; by winning the traditional Northern “New Labour” vote with the creation of the “Northern Powerhouse[i].

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December 2014 Economic Forecast: Modestly Better Rate of Growth

Written by

Our December 2014 Economic Forecast continues to show a stable and growing economy – with a modestly better growth than last month. All portions of the economy outside our economic model - except housing - are showing expansion. There are few warning signs the economy is faltering, and few indications the economy is about to improve its rate of growth. We are truly muddling along.

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GDP Estimate Improves 3Q 2014 Despite Weaker Consumer

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +3.89% annualized rate, up +0.35% from their first estimate for the 3rd quarter but still down some -0.70% from the 4.59% annualized growth rate registered during the second quarter.

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Stratfor: Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas


The first winter took many of the English at Plymouth. By fall 1621, only 53 remained of the 132 who had arrived on the Mayflower. But those who had survived brought in a harvest. And so, in keeping with tradition, the governor called the living 53 together for a three-day harvest feast, joined by more than 90 locals from the Wampanoag tribe. The meal was a moment to recognize the English plantation's small step toward stability and, hopefully, profit. This was no small thing. A first, deadly year was common. Getting through it was an accomplishment. England's successful colony of Virginia had had a massive death toll — of the 8,000 arrivals between 1607 and 1625, only 15 percent lived.

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October 2014 Pending Home Sales Index Declines But Continues to Show Improving Home Sales

Written by

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) seasonally adjusted pending home sales index declined marginally - but remains in expansion for the second month after a year in contraction. Our analysis of pending home sales however suggests that November 2014 existing home sales will be better than October's.

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Stratfor: Iran Prepares for a Leadership Transition


Though Iran has been broadcasting pictures and videos of top state officials and noted foreign dignitaries visiting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the hospital, the health of the man who has held the most powerful post in the Islamic Republic remains unclear. The unusual public relations management of what has been described as a prostate surgery suggests Tehran may be preparing the nation and the world for a transition to a third supreme leader. Iranian efforts to project an atmosphere of normalcy conceal concerns among players in the Iranian political system that a power vacuum will emerge just as the Islamic republic has reached a geopolitical crossroads.

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Final November 2014 Michigan Consumer Slightly Trims Its Strong Preliminary Reading

by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com

The Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 88.8, a bit off the 89.4 preliminary reading but up from from the October Final of 86.9. As finaly readings go, this is a post-recession high and the highest level since July 2007, over seven years ago. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 90.2.

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October 2014 New Home Sales Soft. Large Increase In Sales Prices More than Offsetting Last Month's Decline.

Written by and

The headlines say new home sales are up. Econintersect sees the new home sales data soft this month - with the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages declining. However, the data is moving around like a Mexican jumping bean due to backward (and downward) revisions, and the median sales price significantly increased after last month's significant decline.

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October 2014 Personal Income and Expenditures Slightly Disappoint. Year-over-Year Growth of Consumer Income Is Improving

Written by

This noisy data series came in below expectations. However the news is not that bad as the year-over-year growth of income is growing faster than expenditures.

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Durable Goods Improved in October 2014. The Internals Again Were Not Good - Expectations Were Mixed

Written by

The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved. Our analysis agrees - and if you ignore defense aircraft, durable goods were again very soft month-over-month. 

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November 2014 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Drops Sharply - Well Under Expectations

Written by and

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined - falling for two out of the last seven months. The market expected this index to come in at 94.8 to 98.8 (consensus 96.5) versus the 88.7 reported.

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Case-Shiller Home Prices September 2014: Price Growth Continues to Decelerate

Written by

The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) for September 2014 (released today) rate of growth again declined but continues to show moderate year-over-year gain in housing prices.

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Second Estimate 3Q2014 GDP Revised Up, Corporate Profits Up Too

Written by Doug Short and

The second estimate of second quarter 2014 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now a positive 3.9%. This data point was +3.5% in the advance GDP estimate. The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment, to personal consumption expenditures, and to nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to exports and an upward revision to imports.


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Stratfor: The Islamic State Reshapes the Middle East

by George Friedman

Nuclear talks with Iran have failed to yield an agreement, but the deadline for a deal has been extended without a hitch. What would have been a significant crisis a year ago, replete with threats and anxiety, has been handled without drama or difficulty. This new response to yet another failure to reach an accord marks a shift in the relationship between the United States and Iran, a shift that can’t be understood without first considering the massive geopolitical shifts that have taken place in the Middle East, redefining the urgency of the nuclear issue.

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October 2014 CFNAI Super Index's Significant Backward Revision Moves the 3 Month Moving Average Into Negative Territory

Written by

The economy was growing slower in October 2014 based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average - and the economy has marginally dropped below the historical trend rate of growth.

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Monetary Theory is Non-Ergodic

Beware So-Called ‘Long-Run’ Monetarist Correlations

by Philip Pilkington

When I ran regressions plotting the money supply against the CPI I was told that I should average them over 5 year periods because this would supposedly iron out ‘volatility’ and show long-run trends. I responded in a post saying that I was dubious of this practice because I did not believe it would show long-run trends at all. Rather I thought it was being used to screw with the data. Here is a concrete example, drawing on the M3 and the CPI, showing why it is wise to be on your guard against these sorts of aggregation.


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Oil Price Slide – No Good Way Out

by Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World

The world is in a dangerous place now. A large share of oil sellers need the revenue from oil sales. They have to continue producing, regardless of how low oil prices go unless they are stopped by bankruptcy, revolution, or something else that gives them a very clear signal to stop. Producers of oil from US shale are in this category, as are most oil exporters, including many of the OPEC countries and Russia.

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Is There a Rental Shortage - Inflation Threat?

Written by

There is an obvious relationship between supply and demand. In the rental housing market, demand is eroding supply at a rapid rate according to recent data - likely due to changing demographics and preferences. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is based 40% on housing costs - so the logical conclusion is that a rapid rise in inflation is just around the corner.

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The UAE and Saudi War on the Muslim Brotherhood Could Be Trouble for the U.S.


The UAE Cabinet approved a list of 83 designated terrorist organizations on Saturday, including al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Much more significant, though, was the inclusion of many Muslim organizations based in the West that are believed to be allied with the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Prominent among them are two American Muslim groups: the Council on American Islamic Relations and the Muslim American Society.

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October 2014 Existing Home Sales Had the Best Month in a Year

Written by

The headlines for existing home sales say that sales improved - with this is the first time in a year that home sales volumes grew year-over-year (seasonally adjusted data). Our analysis of the unadjusted data also is positive. The unadjusted three month rolling averages for sales are now only marginally negative but accelerating. Bottom line - this was a relatively good report.

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FOREX NEWS by DailyForex

China Trading Booms; Return to Past

The surge in Chinese equity trading that coincided with market peaks in 2009 and 2010 has returned as the Shanghai Composite Index jumped to a three-year high.

Winter 2014 Holiday Trading Schedule

Check out the trading schedule for the upcoming Winter 2014 holidays here.

Aussie Dollar Continues to Slump

The Australian Dollar touched on a 4-year trough versus the greenback, falling on data which shows that the Chinese economy continues to struggle to grow as well as efforts by the Reserve Bank of Australia to purposely devalue it.

US Q3 Growth Revised Upwards

Initial estimates of economic growth are usually based on partial economic data such that they can be released promptly.

Asia Stocks Up for 4th Day

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for a fourth day of gains, as materials and health-care shares advanced, countering a decline in Japan’s index amid a stronger yen.

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Live Market Commentary:

Market Commentary: Markets Close Mixed, Sideways Trading All Afternoon

Written by

Closing Market Commentary For 11-25-2014

The averages have closed all over the place. The DOW closed flat and in the red while the small caps closed fractionally higher in the green. Volume was low for most of the afternoon with some moderate trading at the close.

By 4 pm the averages looked weak and uninspiring as we suspected would be the case as we move towards the holiday on Thursday.

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Video of the Day:

After a 40% decline in five months, oil prices are still on the slide. That's after many of the world's major oil producers decided not to lower the production target numbers. RT's Murad Gazdiev was in Vienna, where the OPEC meeting took place

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