How Are Countries' Business Cycles Moving Together These Days?


by Diana A. Cooke, M Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, Michael T. Owyang - The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

An economy moves between extended periods of positive output growth (expansions) and shorter periods of negative growth (recessions). Shifting between these phases is typically referred to as the business cycle. This cycle is a prominent feature in economies - both advanced and developing - and can be correlated across countries. The correlation of business cycles implies that groups of countries are in the same phase for stretches of time.


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What We Read Today 25 April 2015

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).


Every day most of this column ("What We Read Today") is available only to GEI members.

To become a GEI Member simply subscribe to our FREE daily newsletter.

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 more features, analysis, studies, and news published in the last week

Did Core Deposits Hedge Loan-Commitment Risk During The Financial Crisis?

from the Cleveland Fed

A financial crisis is generally a time of great stress for banks, firms, and individuals all at once. Firms and banks might be cut off from funding options that just before the crisis were considered stable. At the same time, individuals and firms might be forced to draw down their credit lines to deal with unemployment, slower sales, and other expenses. Under such conditions, banks can find it challenging to provide funding to stressed borrowers, because they are stressed themselves.


Infographic Of The Day: Earth's Atmosphere Is The Great Aerial Ocean

In between Earth and space lies an ocean of air.

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Video of the Day:

Casey just oozes energy, amazing what he comes up with, love these vlogs and inspirational ideas. Casey's mind is incredible, his simple ideas that he turns into masterpieces. Maybe it's just telling that the most amazing things ARE the little things.

video of day picture

FOREX NEWS by DailyForex

Weekly Economic & Political Timeline

This week can be expected to be more active than last week, with the primary focus certain to fall upon the US Federal Reserve followed by the Bank of Japan and the Royal Bank of New Zealand the following day, as all will be releasing major policy statements and announcing interest rates.

What’s in Store for Greece

With focus on a May 6 interest repayment to the International Monetary Fund and the next Eurogroup meeting on May 11 in Brussels, Greece has a number of funding hurdles to clear before then and beyond.

UK Deficit Falls Faster Than Forecast

Figures just released show that the government’s borrowing (to meet the deficit between the nation’s receipts and its expenditure) in March fell to £7.4 billion.

Japanese Yields Shift Below Zero

Driven by a lack of selling, Japanese yields fell below zero for the first time since January. Two-year yields fell one basis point to minus 0.015 percent following the central bank’s move to purchase 520 billion yen in debt.

Kiwi Dollar Flops on RNBZ Comments

After comments from an official of the New Zealand Reserve Bank which hinted at consideration for lower interest rates, the Kiwi Dollar skidded nearly 1.5% against its US rival during the Asian and European sessions.
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The Week Ahead: Upside Breakout?

 more opinion

Shakespeare's Birthday: Ignore the Avalanche of Adulation - He was a Chancer of the First Order

by William Leahy, The Conversation

Brace yourself: it"s Shakespeare"s birthday. Once again various effusive articles will circulate citing the Bard"s genius, his humanity, his uniqueness and his godlike wisdom. If you"re lucky, you"ll have got to this one first.


 USA economy at a glance (boxed items are updates in last 7 days)

17 April 2015: ECRI's WLI Continues to Improve and Almost Out of Negative Territory

ECRI"s WLI Growth Index continues to trend upward but has remained in negative territory for 27 weeks. According to ECRI, this index is forecasting slower economic growth in 1H2015 and now into 2H2015.

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