Has The Wage Phillips Curve Gone Dormant?


from the San Francisco Fed

-- this post authored by Sylvain Leduc and Daniel J. Wilson

Although the labor market has steadily strengthened, wage growth has remained slow in recent years. This raises the question of whether the wage Phillips curve - the traditional relationship between labor market slack and wage growth - has weakened.

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What We Read Today 15 October 2017

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary 'reading list' which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for 'reading list' items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).


Every day most of this column ("What We Read Today") is available only to GEI members.

To become a GEI Member simply subscribe to our FREE daily newsletter.

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 more features, analysis, studies, and news published in the last week

Global And National Shocks Explain A Large Share Of State Job Growth

from the Dallas Fed

-- this post authored by Alexander Chudik, Janet Koech and Mark A. Wynne

Global and U.S. national shocks on average appear to equally explain more than half of the fluctuations in state employment growth, an important measure of assessing real economic activity. The overall assessment, however, conceals a wide variation among states.

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Infographic Of The Day: Terraforming 101: How To Make Mars A Habitable Planet

Before we can journey to the stars, we must first go to Mars.

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Video of the Day:

Can the government take all of a family’s money based on suspicion that one family member committed a crime? That is exactly what happened to the Slatic family earlier this year, when the San Diego County District Attorney seized over $100,000 in personal bank accounts belonging to James Slatic, his wife Annette, and their two teenage daughters, Lily and Penny, without charging anyone with a crime.

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Current Weather Outlook

Written by

NOAA and JAMSTEC  have substantially similar but not identical ideas on the ENSO forecast which is the key to the Seasonal Outlook. Both see a "cool" Eastern Equatorial Ocean pattern with NOAA being more optimistic than JAMSTEC that it will be a true La Nina. This results in closer agreement than usual for the temperature and precipitation forecasts for at least the first two Seasons. The details on this are discussed in this report.

Seasonal Outlook Update

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Sector And Market Analysis 21 October 2017

 more opinion

New Thought For A New Era: The Xi Decade

Written by Dan Steinbock, Difference Group

In the Xi decade, Chinese transition to the post-industrial society will accelerate, despite the new normal in the world economy.

As the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China opened in Beijing, General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered a report about 'building a moderately prosperous society' for a new era.


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 USA economy at a glance (boxed items are updates in last 7 days)

13 October 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Expands Further

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward is remains in expansion. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.

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