Residual Seasonality And Monetary Policy


from the San Francisco Fed

-- this post authored by Glenn D. Rudebusch, Daniel J. Wilson, and Benjamin Pyle

Much recent discussion has suggested that the official real GDP data are inadequately adjusted for recurring seasonal fluctuations. A similar pattern of insufficient seasonal adjustment also affects the published data for a key measure of price inflation. Still, such residual seasonality in the published output and inflation statistics is unlikely to mislead Federal Reserve policymakers or adversely affect the setting of monetary policy.

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 more WWRT

What We Read Today 29 August 2015

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary 'reading list' which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for 'reading list' items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).


Every day most of this column ("What We Read Today") is available only to GEI members.

To become a GEI Member simply subscribe to our FREE daily newsletter.

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 more features, analysis, studies, and news published in the last week

Inflation Expectations Surveys Often Miss The Mark

from the Dallas Fed

-- this post authored by Antonella Tutino

Central bankers, concerned with where inflation is headed, always search for indicators that will aid their real-time decisions. Forecasts based on the forces shaping price pressures at different periods should theoretically provide useful insight.

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Infographic Of The Day: Which Fitness Tracker Is Right For You?

Wearable technology is the future, with more and more of us choosing smart watches and fitness bands to track exercise, sleep patterns and every step we take.

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Video of the Day:

Drone flies over abandoned Fukushima nuclear power plant, which was seriously damaged in 2011 by tsunami that caused equipment failures and radioactive leaks

video of day picture

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The Week Ahead: What Was That Lesson Again?

 more opinion

The Federal Reserve Needs To Raise Rates So That It Can Cut Rates!

by Michael Haltman

Confused? The Fed raising interest rates in order to be able to cut them at some point in the future is the rationale I am hearing on the business news!

The reason is that if (when) the United States economy heads into another recession, the Fed will have ammunition available to be able to take proactive steps to address the problem (beyond QE4 of course)!


 USA economy at a glance (boxed items are updates in last 7 days)

Leading Index Review: June 2015 Philly Fed Leading Index Showing Stable Rate of Economic Growth

Written by Steven Hansen

This leading index continues to be recalculated (what good is a leading index which continues to be recalculated?) - and continues to forecast stable but relatively weak growth for the remainder of the year. A review of all major leading indicators follows - and no leading index is particularily strong.

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